Attempts to predict the future may be a waste of time,
not trying to understand it is a waste of opportunity.
Marcus Tullius Cicero made a distinction between 'facta: what is accomplished and can be taken as solid' and 'futura: what shall come into being, and is as yet undone'.
The data we have are from the past. We don't have data from the future.
Strategic foresight can lead to a better understanding of the future, helping to avoid risks and seize opportunities that the future holds.
THE FUTURE OF DRONES: Strategic Interregnum
Living through highly dynamic and deeply transformative "second drone age" makes strategic foresight an essential tool to navigate through the fog of uncertainty. Four challenges connect the present and future drone adoption: future of air defence, adaptability at the speed of relevance, unmanned warfare diffusion, and integration of military–civilian–industrial complex.
The choices made in response to these challenges will define the next, "third drone age". Five drivers will shape these changes: unmanned asymmetry amplification, accelerated technological evolution, counter–drone arms race, geopolitical struggle and universal proliferation. The outcome may emerge at the intersections of alternative scenarios and contain elements of democratisation of warfare, ubiquitous drone presence, software defined future, or result in a post–drone age.
Beyond technological considerations, there are broader drone–related trends which will shape the security environment of NATO and introduce substantial political, societal and economic consequences. Five such areas with strategic implications were identified in this report: proliferation, democratisation, hyper hybridisation, deterrence erosion, and lowering the conflict threshold.
To find out more, read THE FUTURE OF DRONES: Strategic interregnum, prepared in partnership with Adapt Institute and supported by the NATO Science & Technology Organization Office of the Chief Scientist.
Did you know that...
... current global electricity grids could wrap around the Earth 2,000 times? The total length is 80 million kilometres, yet it is not enough. According to the IEA analysis, the world might need extra 50 million kilometres of grids by 2040 to satisfy growing demand for electricity. In addition, 30 million kilometres of existing grids need to be refurbished. Both green and digital transition thus pose not just a major infrastructural and investment challenge, but also a unique business opportunity. At the same time, natural resources crucial for electricity grids infrastructure, such as aluminium, copper or steel may witness increased demand and accompanying geopolitical competition.
see more here
Statistics
According to preliminary Eurostat estimates from January 2025, GDP in the euro area remained unchanged in the fourth quarter of 2024, while in the EU, it increased by 0.1% compared to the previous quarter. In the third quarter of 2024, GDP grew by 0.4% in both regions. A first calculation of annual GDP growth for 2024, based on seasonally and calendar-adjusted quarterly data, suggests an GDP growth of 0.7% in the euro area and 0.8% in the EU in 2024.
see more here
The term of the week
Horizon Scanning
Technique for detecting early signs of potentially important developments through a systematic examination of potential threats and opportunities. Horizon scanning (also known as environmental scanning) is the foundation of strategic foresight. It is a systematic process of exploring the external environment to identify potential threats, opportunities, disruptions, uncertainties or likely developments relevant to the issue or system under study.
see more here