THE FUTURE OF DRONES: Strategic interregnum

Living through highly dynamic and deeply transformative "second drone age" makes strategic foresight an essential tool to navigate through the fog of uncertainty. Four challenges connect the present and future drone adoption: future of air defence, adaptability at the speed of relevance, unmanned warfare diffusion, and integration of military–civilian– industrial complex.

The choices made in response to these challenges will define the next, "third drone age". Five drivers will shape these changes: unmanned asymmetry amplification, accelerated technological evolution, counter–drone arms race, geopolitical struggle and universal proliferation. The outcome may emerge at the intersections of alternative scenarios and contain elements of democratisation of warfare, ubiquitous drone presence, software defined future, or result in a post–drone age.

As drones remain a disruptive technology and we live in the digital age, technological advancements, software integration and data will remain the key drivers of drone adoption and development. However, beyond technological considerations, there are broader drone–related trends which will shape the security environment of NATO and introduce substantial political, societal and economic consequences. Five such areas with strategic implications were identified in this report: proliferation, democratisation, hyper hybridisation, deterrence erosion, and lowering the conflict threshold.

To find out more, read THE FUTURE OF DRONES: Strategic interregnum, prepared in partnership with Adapt Institute and supported by the NATO Science & Technology Organization Office of the Chief Scientist.