Horizon scanning (also known as environmental scanning) is the foundation of strategic foresight. It is a systematic process of exploring the external environment to identify potential threats, opportunities, disruptions, uncertainties or likely developments relevant to the issue or system under study. The goal is to better understand the nature and pace of change.
The basic elements of horizon scanning are weak signals, i.e. early signs or events whose occurrence is perceived as unknown or unlikely but with potentially significant disruptive or transformative impact if they occur. The posts listed below in the FACTA section describe events, phenomena, or facts that may have a crucial impact on future developments, and in the FUTURA section, they assess their possible future consequences.
The International Fusion Energy Project (ITER) fusion reactor has finally been assembled. But the reactor itself won't operate fully until 2039 at the earliest. It was originally expected to cost around $5 billion and begin its first full test in 2020. It has now suffered multiple delays and its budget swelled beyond $22 billion, with an additional...
Global spending on nuclear weapons is estimated to have increased by 13% to a record $91.4 billion during 2023 according to calculations from the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (Ican). All nine of the world's nuclear-armed nations are spending more. The US spent the most: $51.5 billion, while China and Russia took second...
China is building a mega Port Terminal in the Peruvian city of Chancay. Chinese firm Cosco owns 60% stake in the future port, which is to be used as a trade hub in South America. The total cost of the facility, which promises to shorten shipping times for shipments of any goods between Beijing and the Pacific, is expected...
Iran launches a pilot version of its new digital rial on Kish Island in the Persian Gulf. Users can scan a barcode to make purchases and transfer money without using paper money or bank cards. The central bank began testing a prototype CBDC (central bank digital currency) already in 2022. The digital rial will facilitate retail transactions and...
China has launched an "anti-dumping" investigation into chemical imports, in what appears to be a response to trade barriers introduced by other countries. Thermoplastics coming from the US, the EU, Taiwan and Japan are sold at prices below fair market value, says Beijing. The investigation could take up to 18 months to complete. Beijing's...
The U.K. promised to pump an extra £75 billion into its defence budget over the next six years. The move will see the U.K. spend the equivalent of 2.5% of GDP per year on defence by the end of the decade. The commitment would bring the U.K.'s annual defence spending to £87 billion in 2030-31. No.10 Downing Street said: "If...
On 14 January 2024, Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu asked India to withdraw its military from the archipelago. This comes after he visited China at the invitation of President Xi Jinping on 7-13 January 2024. All 76 Indian soldiers left Maldives in June 2024. The Maldives are strengthening ties with China after President Mohamed Muizzu came to...
